Environmental · buildings

Heat Loss & Heat Pump Sizing

How many kW your home actually needs — and why the radiators, not the cold, decide whether a heat pump works.
Q = ΣUA·ΔT + 0.33nV·ΔT

The building

1990s
21 °C inside against the coldest design day outside — about −3 °C for much of the UK, colder in the north and inland.
U-values · W/m²K
W/m²K
W/m²K
W/m²K
W/m²K

What it needs

Result
Detail
Room by room

What each room needs

The whole-house figure above sizes a heat pump. It cannot size a radiator, and radiators are what actually stop a heat pump working. Each room gets its own design temperature and ventilation rate, its own external walls, and its own emitter requirement at the flow temperature you chose.

RoomUseFloor m²Ext wall mWindow m² RoofFloorΔTLossW/m² Rated emitter
Summed from the rooms
Field notes

What actually decides whether a heat pump works

How it works

Two sums, and one that surprises people

Heat loss is the sum of everything leaking out through the fabric — ΣU·A·ΔT, each surface's area times how readily it conducts, times how much colder it is outside — plus the heat carried away by air changing over, 0.33·n·V·ΔT. Add them and you have the kW the house needs on the coldest design day. That number sizes the plant, whatever the plant is.

The part that catches people out

A radiator's rated output assumes water about 50 K hotter than the room. Run it cooler and output falls with roughly the 1.3 power of that difference — not linearly. A boiler at 70 °C gives a radiator about 85% of its rating; a heat pump at 45 °C gives it about 33%.

So the same room needs roughly two and a half times the radiator. Heat pumps in badly performing installations are usually not undersized pumps in a cold house — they are ordinary pumps pushed to high flow temperatures because nobody changed the emitters, which wrecks the efficiency that was the whole point.

What size heat pump do I need?

The design heat loss, rounded up to the nearest available unit — not a rule of thumb per square metre. Oversizing costs efficiency because the unit cycles instead of modulating, and it costs money up front. A well-insulated 110 m² house is often 4–6 kW; a solid-walled Victorian one of the same size can be double that.

Do I have to replace every radiator?

Rarely all of them. Radiators are frequently already oversized for their rooms, and the requirement is per room, not per house. Work out each room's loss and compare it with what the existing emitter gives at your intended flow temperature — this tool gives you that multiplier.

Why does flow temperature matter so much?

Twice, in opposite directions. It sets how much output your emitters give, and it sets the heat pump's efficiency — roughly 2.5% less COP per extra °C. Running hot to compensate for small radiators is exactly the trade that makes a heat pump expensive to run.

Why is the room sum different from the whole-house figure?

Because they are built from different information. The whole-house number assumes a plan shape to get its wall area, and one average air change rate. The room sum uses the wall lengths you entered and a ventilation rate per room use. Compare them as W/m², not kW — the two have separate floor areas, so the kW totals are for different houses until those agree. In a well-sealed home the room sum comes out higher, because an average hides the kitchen and the bathroom.

Why does a small bathroom need so much heat?

Ventilation. A bathroom is designed for around 3 air changes an hour against 1 for a bedroom, and it is held 4 K warmer. On a modern fabric that makes ventilation three-quarters of its heat loss, so it needs far more per square metre than its size suggests. It is why bathrooms get towel rails that look oversized and still struggle.

Is this a substitute for a proper survey?

No. A real MCS survey measures every room, every surface and the actual construction. This is for understanding the shape of the problem before anyone quotes — and for sanity-checking a quote that looks wrong.

An estimate, not a survey. Typical U-values for the era rather than measured ones, and it ignores thermal bridging, orientation, shelter, solar gain and internal gains. The room-by-room table uses whatever fabric figures you enter, so it is only as good as your measurements. Use it to understand the problem or check a quote — not to order equipment.
Version history · 1 release
  1. v1.112026-07-29Room-by-room heat loss — per-room design temperature, ventilation rate and the emitter each room actually needs

Releases in which this page changed, newest last. Derived from the archived copy of every release, not from notes written afterwards — so it reflects what actually shipped. Site-wide passes are left out; they are in the full changelog.