Finance · independence

FIRE Calculator

Your FIRE number, years to reach it, and what "coasting" from today would take.
FIRE = spending ÷ withdrawal rate
$1.0M target

Your numbers

Path to your FIRE number

nest egg over time, in today's money
Your numbers
Detail

Same average return, wildly different outcomes

smooth constant return bad years early in retirement bad years late in retirement
Important Not financial advice. Every figure here is an illustrative estimate for general information and education. It is not financial, investment, tax, mortgage or legal advice, not a personal recommendation, and not a quote or an offer. Rules of Thumb is not authorised or regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and does not carry out regulated activities. Rates, fees and thresholds change and may be out of date. Before acting on anything here, speak to a qualified financial adviser, mortgage broker, accountant or your lender, who can take your own circumstances into account. See the Terms of Use.
How it works

Three numbers, one target

Your FIRE number

Annual spending ÷ safe withdrawal rate: the pot that can fund that spending indefinitely. At the classic 4% rule that is 25× annual spending.

In today’s money

Savings and contributions grow at your return after inflation until they cross the number. The target is priced today, so only growth beyond rising prices counts.

Savings rate

The biggest lever: it grows the pot faster and shrinks the number you are aiming for, since saving more usually means spending less.

Coast FIRE

Enough saved that growth alone finishes the job by retirement age. Lean FIRE targets minimal spending for an earlier date; Fat FIRE a bigger number for a costlier life.

Worked example. Spending $60,000 a year at a 4% withdrawal rate needs a $1,500,000 FIRE number. Starting from $50,000 and saving 25% of an $80,000 income (about $1,667 a month, rising with prices) at a 7% return and 3% inflation, a 3.9% real return, gets there in about 33 years. Leaving inflation out says 24, the commonest mistake in FIRE arithmetic: it compares a future balance with a target priced today.
Field notes

The three levers

Sequence-of-returns risk

Smooth 7% every year$3.57M
Bad years early$1.53M
Bad years late$4.32M

The same average return, in a different order, over a 30-year retirement from $1M drawing $40k a year. A bad run right after you retire can permanently damage a portfolio; this tool assumes a smooth, constant return, which real markets never deliver.

+14%bigger pot

Why the withdrawal rate matters so much

Dropping from a 4% to a 3.5% withdrawal rate does not sound like much, but it raises your FIRE number by roughly 14%: a meaningfully bigger pot for the same spending, in exchange for a larger safety margin.

Questions

What people ask

What is Coast FIRE?

The amount you'd need today such that, with zero further contributions, investment growth alone carries you to your FIRE number by a chosen retirement age. Once you've coasted past that number, every future dollar you save is optional — growth alone finishes the job.

Why does the savings rate matter more than the return rate?

A higher savings rate does two things at once: it grows your pot faster and shrinks the pot you actually need (since your target spending falls too). A higher return rate only does the first. That's why FIRE advice leans so heavily on the savings rate over chasing extra investment return.

Is 4% actually safe?

The 4% rule comes from historical US market backtests (the Trinity study) over a roughly 30-year retirement. Longer retirements, non-US markets, or a desire for more safety margin argue for a lower rate (3–3.5%); shorter horizons or more flexibility in spending can support a higher one. It's a starting point, not a law.

Does this account for taxes?

No — this is a pre-tax projection in today's money: returns are reduced by the inflation you set, contributions are assumed to rise with prices, and the FIRE number is what your spending costs now. Real-world results depend heavily on account type (taxable, tax-deferred, Roth) and your tax situation at withdrawal, which this tool doesn't model.

How can three lines with the same average return end up so different?

Because you're withdrawing money while the market moves, not just watching a balance grow. A crash early in retirement forces you to sell a lot of shares while they're cheap to fund the same withdrawal, which permanently shrinks the base that's left to recover — the exact same crash landing near the end barely matters, because there's far less time left for it to compound against you. The average return genuinely doesn't tell you what you need to know; the order does.

A projection, not a promise. Assumes a constant return and constant savings rate — real markets are volatile, and sequence-of-returns risk matters more than any single number here.
Version history · 1 release
  1. v1.702026-08-08Sequence risk reverses sign while you are still saving — and a wrong pick, recorded

Releases in which this page changed, newest last. Derived from the archived copy of every release, not from notes written afterwards — so it reflects what actually shipped. Site-wide passes are left out; they are in the full changelog.

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